AUD/USD stayed in sideway trading in range of 0.6563 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6546 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, however, break of 0.6758 resistance will now be a strong signal of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7161) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
