AUD/USD’s down trend continued last week and fell to 0.6362, then recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited well below 0.6698 support turned resistance. Break of 0.6362 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155.
In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. With 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 firmly taken out, next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.
In the long term picture, current medium term downside momentum raises the chance of resumption of long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). It’s still a it early to judge the chance. But break of 0.5506 will target 0.4773 (2001 low).
