AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6680 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6873 resistance intact. Break of 0.6680 will target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.
In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.
