AUD/USD rebounded to 0.7167 last week but reversed from there. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retesting 0.6966. Firm break there and sustained trading below 0.6991 will extend the down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, above 0.7167 will resume the rebound to 0.7313 resistance.
In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.
In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.
