AUD/USD continued last week but it started to lose momentum approaching 0.7031 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. On the downside, break of 0.6856 support will suggest short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pull back towards 0.6569 resistance turned support.
In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6710).
In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.
