AUD/USD rose to as high as 0.6938 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6800 support holds. On the upside, above 0.6938 will extend the rebound from 0.6670 to 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. However, break of 0.6800 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6754 support instead.
In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
