AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6670 extended to as high as 0.6929 last week but formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolations first. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.6809 support to bring another rise. Break of 0.6894 resistance was taken as the first sign of medium term reversal. This is affirmed by the strong support by 55 day EMA. Above 0.6929 will target 0.7082 key resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 0.6809 support will revive bearishness and target 0.6670 low again.
In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7531).
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
