AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6882 last week but failed to break through 0.6894 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. For now, we’d still expect upside to be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6723 first. Break will bring retest of 0.6677 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
