AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6670 last week but drew support from 0.6677 and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery as consolidation from 0.6677 extends. But upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.6670/7 will confirm larger down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
