AUD/USD lost momentum after dipping to 0.6739 last week, but outlook is unchanged. Corrective rise from 0.6677 should have completed with three waves up to 0.6984. Further decline is expected with 0.6806 minor resistance holds, to retest 0.6677. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
