AUD/USD’s break of 0.6831 support last week confirmed resumption of fall from 0.7295. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6722 low first. Break will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618 next. On the upside, above 0.6868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 0.7082 resistance to bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish. . The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume target 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7295 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
