AUD/USD breached 0.6988 to 0.6984 last week but failed to sustain below and quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7069 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside. break of 0.6984 will resume recent decline for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7069 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7205 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
