AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7393 extended to as low as 0.7033 last week and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remain son the downside for 0.7020 key support first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).
In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
