Eurozone private-sector growth accelerated sharply in September, with PMI Composite rising from 52.0 to 53.1, its highest level in 41 months, while PMI Services increased from 51.6 to 53.0, the strongest since last November. The improvement was broad-based across both manufacturing and services, while all five countries with available Composite PMI data recorded expansion for the first time since last November. Germany’s upturn strengthened further, while France returned to modest growth.
Demand conditions also strengthened. Overall new business increased for a third straight month and at the fastest pace in 41 months, while export orders rose at their strongest rate in more than four-and-a-half years. Capacity pressures became more evident as backlogs increased for the first time since June 2022 and firms continued to add staff. Within services, new business growth matched the strongest pace since last November, while outstanding work increased for the first time since October 2025.
The stronger growth picture was accompanied by renewed inflation pressure. Composite input-cost and output-charge inflation both accelerated sharply to their fastest rates since May, while services firms raised selling prices at the quickest pace since February 2024. S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said the surveys point to around 0.4% q/q GDP growth and suggested inflation could be running closer to 4% than the ECB’s 2% target. With activity, demand and pricing pressures all strengthening together, the release provides a notably firmer backdrop for expectations of further ECB tightening.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Sep | Aug |
|---|---|---|
| PMI Services | 53.0 | 51.6 |
| PMI Composite | 53.1 | 52.0 |
Key Takeaways
- Growth accelerated: PMI Composite rose from 52.0 to 53.1, the highest in 41 months, while PMI Services increased from 51.6 to 53.0, the strongest since last November.
- Expansion broadened: Both manufacturing output and services activity strengthened, while all five countries with available Composite PMI data expanded for the first time since last November.
- Demand strengthened: Overall new business grew at the fastest pace in 41 months, while export orders increased at the strongest rate in more than four-and-a-half years.
- Capacity pressure returned: Backlogs rose for the first time since June 2022, while services outstanding work increased for the first time since October 2025.
- Employment kept growing: Firms added staff again in September, although services hiring growth eased slightly from August.
- Inflation re-accelerated: Composite input costs and selling prices both rose at their fastest rates since May, while services output-price inflation reached its strongest pace since February 2024.
- Growth/inflation mix turned firmer: S&P Global said the surveys point to around 0.4% q/q GDP growth and suggested inflation may be running closer to 4% than the ECB’s 2% target, a combination that could reinforce speculation over further tightening.
