China’s official September PMIs improved broadly, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity returning to expansion. PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.8 to 50.1, matching expectations and ending two months below the 50 threshold, while PMI Non-Manufacturing climbed from 49.0 to 50.2, beating the 49.3 consensus. The PMI Composite strengthened from 49.5 to 50.7, confirming a broader pickup in economy-wide output at the end of the third quarter. The improvement was helped by a stronger seasonal production period, easing weather disruptions and firmer activity across both factories and services.
The manufacturing details, however, showed that production continued to run ahead of demand. The production index rose sharply from 50.4 to 51.7, while new orders edged down from 50.6 to 50.5 and new export orders slipped from 50.1 to 50.0. Backlogs fell from 46.7 to 46.0, and employment weakened from 48.7 to 48.4, reinforcing the picture of stronger output without a comparable improvement in underlying demand. Price pressures also intensified notably, with input prices jumping from 56.6 to 60.8 and output prices rising from 50.4 to 54.0, indicating a stronger cost impulse even as order growth remained subdued.
Non-manufacturing delivered the clearer improvement in activity, with construction rising from 46.9 to 50.3 and services from 49.3 to 50.2. New orders also improved markedly from 44.1 to 46.5, but remained well below 50, while employment rose only modestly from 45.4 to 45.9. Input prices increased from 51.1 to 52.5 and selling prices returned to expansion from 49.3 to 50.3, while business expectations strengthened from 55.0 to 55.5. The official surveys therefore point to a broader stabilization in activity, but the recovery remains uneven, with output and business activity recovering faster than orders and hiring.
Private-sector surveys painted a somewhat stronger picture. RatingDog PMI Manufacturing rose from 51.5 to 52.1, while PMI Services increased from 51.4 to 51.6 and PMI Composite climbed from 52.1 to 52.4. The services survey showed new business expanding at the quickest pace since June, export business accelerating and employment rising for a fifth consecutive month, although hiring growth slowed. At the same time, output prices fell for the first time in four months and at the fastest pace since April 2022, highlighting continued competitive pressure despite firmer activity.er pricing power across the sector.
Official Manufacturing PMI — Data Summary
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| PMI Manufacturing | 49.8 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| Production | 50.4 | 51.7 | — |
| New Orders | 50.6 | 50.5 | — |
| New Export Orders | 50.1 | 50.0 | — |
| Backlogs | 46.7 | 46.0 | — |
| Purchases | 50.5 | 51.0 | — |
| Imports | 48.6 | 49.2 | — |
| Raw Material Inventories | 48.1 | 48.2 | — |
| Employment | 48.7 | 48.4 | — |
| Supplier Delivery Times | 50.1 | 50.1 | — |
| Business Expectations | 53.8 | 53.8 | — |
Official Manufacturing — Price Indicators
| Indicator | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Input Prices | 56.6 | 60.8 |
| Output Prices | 50.4 | 54.0 |
The headline returned to expansion, but the improvement was led by production rather than demand, while both input and selling-price indices rose sharply.
Official Non-Manufacturing PMI — Data Summary
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| PMI Non-Manufacturing | 49.0 | 50.2 | 49.3 |
| Construction Activity | 46.9 | 50.3 | — |
| Services Activity | 49.3 | 50.2 | — |
| New Orders | 44.1 | 46.5 | — |
| New Export Orders | 47.0 | 48.5 | — |
| Backlogs | 42.8 | 43.8 | — |
| Inventories | 45.6 | 46.3 | — |
| Employment | 45.4 | 45.9 | — |
| Business Expectations | 55.0 | 55.5 | — |
Official Non-Manufacturing — Price Indicators
| Indicator | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Input Prices | 51.1 | 52.5 |
| Selling Prices | 49.3 | 50.3 |
Non-manufacturing delivered the clearer upside surprise, with both construction and services returning above 50, although new orders and employment remained in contraction.
Composite and Private PMIs
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS PMI Composite | 49.5 | 50.7 | — |
| RatingDog PMI Manufacturing | 51.5 | 52.1 | 51.6 |
| RatingDog PMI Services | 51.4 | 51.6 | 51.1 |
| RatingDog PMI Composite | 52.1 | 52.4 | — |
RatingDog services activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months, while new business strengthened and employment increased for a fifth consecutive month. The private composite also strengthened from 52.1 to 52.4.
Key Takeaways
- Official manufacturing returned to expansion, with PMI Manufacturing rising from 49.8 to 50.1 and matching expectations.
- The improvement was production-led rather than demand-led. Production jumped from 50.4 to 51.7, while new orders edged lower to 50.5 and export orders slipped to 50.0.
- Manufacturing backlogs and employment weakened further, reinforcing the message that demand and hiring continue to lag output.
- Factory price pressures intensified sharply, with input prices rising from 56.6 to 60.8 and output prices from 50.4 to 54.0.
- Non-manufacturing surprised positively, rising from 49.0 to 50.2 against expectations of 49.3, as both services and construction returned to expansion.
- Non-manufacturing demand remained soft despite improving: new orders rose from 44.1 to 46.5 but stayed clearly below 50, while employment remained weak at 45.9.
- The official PMI Composite rose from 49.5 to 50.7, showing a broader return to expansion across the economy.
- Private surveys were stronger still, with RatingDog manufacturing at 52.1 and services at 51.6. The services survey showed firmer new business and exports, but intense competition drove output prices down at the fastest pace since April 2022.
- Overall, September points to broader stabilization in activity, but not yet a matching recovery in demand. Production and business activity are improving faster than orders and employment.
