ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 showed a modest upward revision to inflation expectations, signaling persistent price pressures across the Eurozone.
Headline HICP inflation is now expected to average 2.2% in 2025, before easing to 2.0% in both 2026 and 2027. These figures reflect a 0.1% upward revision for 2025 and 2026. Figures for 2027 was left unchanged.
Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was also revised slightly higher across all horizons, now projected at 2.3% (prior 2.2%) in 2025 and 2.1% (prior 2.0%) for both 2026 and 2027.
Long-term expectations for headline inflation remain anchored at 2.0%, with core inflation expectations edging up from 1.9% to 2.0%.
On the growth front, the outlook was revised slightly lower for the near term. Real GDP is expected to expand by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026—both down -0.1% from the prior survey—before picking up to 1.4% in 2027. Longer-term growth expectations remain unchanged at 1.3%.
