Fed’s Schmid: Inflation risks rising, but growth concerns loom

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid cautioned in a speech today there were “sharp upward movement” in some measures of expected inflation in the past two months.

While acknowledging the imperfections and volatility of survey-based inflation expectations, Schmid emphasized that now is “not the time to let down our guard,” given inflation’s recent history of reaching a four-decade high.

He expressed reluctance to dismiss the recent uptick in expectations as a “one-off transitory developments”, stressing that Fed must remain vigilant against a resurgence in inflationary pressures.

At the same time, Schmid noted that the economic outlook is highly uncertain. Feedback from businesses in his district, along with some recent economic data, indicates that Fed might need to carefully “balance inflation risks against growth concerns.”