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RBA minutes: The narrow path is becoming narrower

Minutes of RBA’s June meeting emphasize the need to remain “vigilant to upside risks to inflation”. The RBA noted that the information received since the previous meeting reinforced this need, underscoring the “extent of uncertainty” in the current economic environment, which makes it “difficult either to rule in or rule out” future changes in interest rates.

Concerns were raised about the “narrow path” to bringing inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe without significantly deviating from full employment. This path, according to the minutes, is “becoming narrower.”

The decision to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% was deemed the stronger option compared to another rate hike. Data received since May meeting “had not been sufficient” to alter RBA’s assessment that inflation would return to target by 2026, despite “some elevated upside risk” surrounding the forecast. Moreover, the minutes revealed that the members felt there was “not enough evidence” to suggest that the outlook for aggregate demand had strengthened.

Full RBA minutes here.

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