In the Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank raised its global growth forecast for 2024 by 0.2% to 2.6%, which matches the pace of 2023. Growth is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026, but still well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.1%.
“In a sense, we see the runway for a soft landing,” said World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose. “That’s the good news. What is not good news is that we may be stuck in the slow lane.”
The report includes an alternative scenario where persistent inflation in advanced economies keeps interest rates about 40 basis points higher than the baseline forecast, potentially cutting 2025 global growth to 2.4%.
For the US, the World Bank now predicts 2.5% growth in 2024, consistent with the 2023 rate and up from January’s forecast of 1.6%. Growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026.
In the Eurozone, growth is projected to accelerate to 0.7% in 2024, unchanged from previous forecasts, and then increase to 1.4% in 2025 before slightly dipping to 1.3% in 2026.
Japan’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 0.7% from 0.9%, due to weak consumption and slowing exports, though growth is expected to improve to 1.0% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.
China’s growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 4.8% from 4.5%, driven by increased exports. However, growth is expected to decline to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, due to weak investment, low consumer confidence, and a struggling property sector.
