BoC members divided on rate cut timing, united on gradual easing approach

BoC’s April meeting summary revealed a “diversity of views” among its members concerning the timing of the first interest rate cut. Despite differing opinions, there was a unanimous agreement that any adjustment to monetary policy would “probably be gradual” once initiated.

Key concerns highlighted by some board members included the need for “more reassurance” regarding the diminishing risks associated with stalling of progress on slowing core inflation. These members observed that the Canadian economy is “performing well”, mitigating the risk that the current restrictive monetary policy could excessively decelerate economic activity. However, they cautioned that stronger domestic demand, alongside robust economic growth in the US, “keep core inflation from slowing further” or might even cause it to “pick up again in the event of new surprises”.

Conversely, other members argued that there is a tangible risk of maintaining a monetary policy that is “more restrictive than needed.” This group emphasized the significant progress already achieved in reducing inflation, noting that the rates of inflation across most goods and services had “come down significantly,” and the distribution of inflation rates among the CPI components had begun to “approach normal.”

Despite these differing perspectives, the consensus was clear that any forthcoming policy easing would be implemented cautiously. “While there was a diversity of views about when conditions would likely warrant cutting the policy rate, they agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target,” the summary stated.

Full BoC summary of deliberations here.