In the update to Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs economic forecasts, a marginal upgrade has been bestowed upon Switzerland’s 2023 GDP outlook, leveraging the robust performance in the first quarter. The forecast, adjusted for sporting events, now stands at 1.3%, a slight increase from the 1.1% predicted in June.
Despite this adjustment, outlook for 2024 has experienced a cut, settling at 1.2% as opposed to the earlier estimation of 1.5%. This renders the prospects for economic growth considerably below-average for both 2023 and 2024.
Shifting focus to CPI forecasts, the estimation for 2023 have been marginally trimmed down to 2.2%, a -0.1% decrease from June forecast. Conversely, 2024 projection experiences a hike, ascending from 1.5% to 1.9%.
SECO points towards substantial economic risks looming on the horizon. A pressing concern is the international persistence of inflation. The panorama of economic challenges also encompasses escalating risks tied to the global debt scenario fluctuations in property and financial markets. Monetary policy transmission could also be stronger than assumed.
Furthermore, the evolving situations in Germany and China emerge as potent risk factors, not just for the global economy but significantly impacting Swiss foreign trade.
