BoC is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rate of 5.00% today. This expected pause in rate adjustments comes on the heels of surprising economic contraction in Canada, with the GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.2% in Q2. The contraction signals the onset of economic slowdown, a stark contrast to the relatively robust performance seen in previous quarters.
Although July’s inflation rate of 3.3% remains well above BoC’s target, weakening economic backdrop is likely to bolster policymakers’ confidence that inflation will gradually fall back to target over time. The slower economy could apply downward pressure on prices, providing the central bank with some breathing room to keep rates unchanged for now.
EUR/CAD’s decline since last week suggests that recovery from 1.4482 has completed at 1.4822 already, ahead of 1.4879 resistance. For now, price actions from 1.4879 are seen as a consolidation pattern only, and thus, rise from 1.4280 should resume after this pattern completes. Hence, while deeper fall is in favor in the near term as long as 1.4700 resistance holds, downside should be contained by 100% projection of 1.4879 to 1.4482 from 1.4822 at 1.4425.
On a broader scale, price actions from 1.5111 are seen as a corrective pattern only and the up trend from 1.2867 is not over. The lingering question is whether the rise from 1.4280 constitutes the second leg of a medium-term pattern or signifies a resumption of the upward trend. More clarity on this could emerge once the current consolidation phase from 1.4879 completes.
