New Zealand’s business confidence has reached its highest point since September 2021, with ANZ Business Confidence Index improved from -18.0 to -13.1. Although this remains in the negative territory, it shows a relative boost in optimism.
Looking at the details, Own Activity Outlook, a measure of businesses’ expectations of their own activity, experienced a slight drop from 2.7 to 0.8. However, various components of the index witnessed improvements. Export intentions increased from -1.8 to 1.5, indicating a renewed confidence in overseas markets. Both investment and employment intentions showed minor improvements.
Inflation indicators were mixed, with cost expectations climbing from 76.0 to 80.6, while inflation expectations saw a slight ease from 5.29% to 5.14%. At the same time, profit expectations and pricing intentions edged slightly lower.
Despite expecting a recession and rising unemployment, ANZ’s view on the current economic environment is that it’s “patchy rather than capitulating,” suggesting that although there are definite challenges ahead, New Zealand’s economy might show more resilience than expected.
