10-year yield gaps up today and hits as high as 3.356 so far, as the rout in bonds and stocks continue. TNX’s power through 3.248 resistance (2018 high) is a surprise, and significant. It’s finally breaking the lower-highs lower-lows pattern that started back in 1981.
For now further rally is expected as long as 2.994 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.398 to 1.765 from 1.343 at 3.554. Overbought condition (in yields, and oversold in bonds) should limited upside there and bring a pull back. That, ideally, should come as the inflation situation stabilize and improve. However, sustained break of 3.554 would be another big warning on the economic outlook ahead.
