US non-farm payroll employment is the main focus for today. The US economy is expected to add 325k jobs in May. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.6% to 3.5%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise another 0.4% mom. Looking at related data, ADP private jobs grew just 128k, well below expectations. ISM manufacturing employment dropped into contraction reading of 49.6. Four-week moving average of initial claims also rose notably from 188k to 206k. There is risk of downside surprise in the heading NFP number today. But wages growth would be the one that matters more.
US stocks are trying to extend rebound this week, even though some Fed officials tried to talk down the prospect of a September pause in tightening. NASDAQ’s rebound form 11035.68 is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 12610.13). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole fall from 16212.22 has completed in form of a three wave correction. Stronger rally would then be seen back towards trendline resistance at around 13800 later in the month. Such development would cap rally attempts in the greenback.
