AUD/NZD is a focus today with RBA and RBNZ featured. It started a rebound since mid September, even though market are expecting RBNZ to hike soon while RBA is still extending it’s QE. The reactions to both central banks this week would determine whether the cross has indeed been reversing the down trend.
Technically, the conditions for a bullish reversal are there, with 55 day EMA broken. Also, fall from 1.1042, as a corrective move, has met it’s target of 100% projection of 1.1042 to 1.0415 from 1.0944 at 1.0314 already, as well as the medium term channel support. Slight bullish convergence condition is also seen in daily MACD.
On the upside, sustained break of 1.0538 resistance will firstly indicates that fall from 1.0944 has completed. Also, whole fall from 1.1042 might also have finished with three waves down to 1.0278 too. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for an eventual retest on 1.0944/1042 resistance zone. However, failure to break through 1.0538, followed by break of 1.0390 minor support, will bring retest of 1.0278 low, and retain medium term bearishness instead.
