In its January 2020 Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank forecasts global growth to pick up by 0.1% to 2.5% as “investment and trade gradually recover from last year’s significant weakness”. Even so, that was a -0.2% downgrade from June’s projection of 2.7%. Growth in US is expected slow from 2.3% to 1.8% (revised down by -0.2%). Eurozone growth is projected to slow from 1.1% to 1.0% (revised down by -0.1%). Japan’s growth is estimated to slow from 1.1% to 0.7% (revised up from 0.3%). China’s growth is projected to slow from 6.1% to 5.9% (revised down by -0.1%).
World Bank also warned: “Downside risks to the global outlook predominate, and their materialization could slow growth substantially. These risks include a re-escalation of trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty, a sharper-than expected downturn in major economies, and financial turmoil in emerging market and developing economies. Even if the recovery in emerging and developing economy growth takes place as expected, per capita growth would remain well below long-term averages and well below levels necessary to achieve poverty alleviation goals.”
