NIESR said the UK economy is course to contract by -0.2% in Q2, “mainly driven by the production and construction sectors”. That would be a “marked slowdown” from Q1 when growth was boosted by pre-Brexit “stockbuilding”. It added that recent surveys suggests “there has not been a material recovery in output in May”.
Garry Young, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, said “The latest GDP data were weaker than expected, partly reflecting shifts in production around the original Brexit departure date, including a 24 per cent fall in car manufacturing. The underlying picture is also quite weak, with Brexit-related uncertainty at home and trade tensions abroad dragging on investment spending and economic growth”.
