Gold jumps further to as high as 1348.22 today on broad based weakness in Dollar. Much lower than expected US NFP and smaller than expected wage growth added to speculation of Fed’s rate cut. June 19 is probably still a bit too early given that it’s just one month of poor job data. September is more likely if there is no improvement in Trump’s trade war with China and Mexico.
Back to Gold, rise from 1160.17 is likely resuming. Sustained trading above 1346.71 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54. Break of 1319.98 support, however, will probably extend the consolidation from 1346.71 with another decline.
Let’s be reminded that 1381.54 is very close to long term fibonacci resistance of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36. As noted before, the strong support from 55 week EMA is taken as a rather bullish signal. That raises the chance that gold would finally overcome this fib resistance after multiple attempt over the last few years. We’ll monitor the momentum of next move to see.
