At the time of writing, NZD/JPY is the biggest mover today. But considering that it’s just down -49 pips or -0.67%, it’s place could easily been taken out by others at close. Also, it’s showing that today’s trading is rather dull.
Similar to other Yen crosses, NZD/JPY spiked lower to 69.18 last week on the currency flash crash. It was held slightly above 68.88 key support and rebounded. Rise from 69.18 is seen as a corrective move only and it’s already losing some momentum ahead of 4 hour 55 EMA.
While another rise cannot be ruled out yet, upside should be limited by 74.03 minor resistance. On the downside, below 72.12 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retest 69.18 low.
From a medium term point of view, weekly MACD turned negative and crossed below signal line. NZD/JPY is held well below falling 55 week EMA. Both carry mildly bearish implications. For now, we’d favor an eventual break of 68.88 (2016 low) to resume the down trend from 94.01 (2015 high). In that case, next medium-to-long-term target will be 100% projection of 94.01 to 68.88 from 83.90 at 58.77. This will now remain the preferred case as long as 74.03 minor resistance holds.
