WTI crude oil’s down trend from 77.06 resumed this week and drops to as low as 48.09 so far today. Such decline is seen as at least correcting the long term rise from 27.69 (2016 low). Thus, further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 27.69 to 77.06 (2018 high) at 46.54.
We’d look at the reaction from 46.54, as well as the structure of the subsequent rebound to decide whether fall from 77.06 is an impulsive or corrective move. But in any case, break of 54.61 resistance is needed to be the first sign of near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong recovery.
