The UK Government released a series of five papers on Brexit today. The most anticipated in the one on long term economic analysis of Brexit. In short, according the government, in 15 years by 2034 after Brexit:
- GDP could contract as much as -10.7% in case of no-deal Brexit with zero net inflow of EEA workers
- GDP would contract just -1.4% if it’s modelled after EEA-type (European Economic Area) of deal, that is, Norway kind of deal.
- Under Prime Minister Theresa’s Plan, GDP would contract only -0.6% if there is no change in migration arrangement. Or, in the best case scenario, GDP could just contract -0.1%.
The EU Exit: Long-term economic analysis report here. And, all five papers here.
In the parliament, Prime Minister Theresa May hailed her own plan and said “What the analysis shows, it does show that this deal that we have negotiated is the best deal for our jobs and our economy which delivers on the results of the referendum.”
