It’s hard to say who’s the biggest mover today. EUR/CAD moves more in terms of percentage. But GBP/CAD moves more in terms of pips.
Actually they’re very close. CAD strength is overwhelming after hawkish BoC hike. Meanwhile Eurozone and UK both have their own problems, which are indeed EU related.
Let’s have a look at GBP/CAD. It’s rather clear that price actions from 1.6594 are a three-wave corrective pattern. It’s very likely completed at 1.7285, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.8415 to 1.6594 at 1.7290. Further fall should be seen in near term 1.6594 low first. Break will confirm resumption of the down trend from 1.8415. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.8415 to 1.6594 from 1.7285 at 1.6160. Even if there will be interim recovery before breaking 1.6594, we don’t expect a break of 1.7285 resistance.
In the bigger picture, it does look like GBP/CAD has completed a three-wave correction from 1.5746 to 1.8415, after hitting 50% retracement of 2.0971 to 1.5746 at 1.8359. So there is prospect of breaking 2016 low at 1.5746 in medium term. That would depend on the downside momentum after taking out 1.6594 low.
