China exports plunged -9.9% yoy in December in USD terms, worst drop since February 2020, but slightly better than expectation of -10.0% yoy. Imports fell -7.5% yoy, better than expectation of -9.8% yoy. Trade surplus widened from USD 69.8B to USD 78.0B, slightly above expectation of USD 77.9B.
In CNY term, exports declined -0.5% yoy while imports rose 2.2% yoy. Trade surplus widened from CNY 494B to CNY 550B, above expectation of USD 533B.
For 2022 as a whole, in US term, exports rose 7.2%, much worse than 2021’s 29.6%. Imports rose 1.1%, down sharply from 2021’xs 30.0%.
USD/CNH extended the decline from 7.3745 this week on Dollar’s broad based selloff. Nevertheless, it’s sitting close to an important support zone around 6.7159 (61.8% retracement of 6.3057 to 7.3745 at 6.7140). Considering oversold condition in daily RSI, a rebound should be due. Break of 6.7989 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring rebound. But considering that the falling 55 day is now at around 6.9768, there is little prospect for the rebound to break through 7 handle for now.
