The Euro bounced from new multi-month low at 1.1938 on Thursday, but recovery attempts so far remain under key barriers at 1.2000/14 (psychological barrier/200SMA).
Steep fall off 1.2413 (17 Apr high) found footstep just above key Fibo support at 1.1936 (61.8% of 1.1553/1.2555 rally), signaling consolidative/corrective action before broader bears resume.
Daily RSI is emerging from oversold territory, while deeply oversold slow stochastic is turning higher and 14-d momentum is reversing, supporting the notion. US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but pointed that inflation is moving higher and moving close to its 2% target, economic outlook is balanced and jobs sector is strengthening, keeping positive environment for the dollar.
Profit-taking on strong bearish acceleration in past two weeks would push the price higher, which could be seen as positioning for fresh weakness.
While 200SMA caps, immediate focus will remain at the downside, with break through 1.1936 to generate bearish signal for fresh bearish acceleration which could stretch towards 1.1790 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555 ascend.
On the other side, break and close above 200SMA would signal stronger corrective action which should be capped under 1.2120 zone (falling 10SMA/Fibo 38.2% of 1.2413/1.1938 descend), to keep larger bears intact.
EU inflation data (Apr f/c 1.3% vs 1.3% prev) is the key event of the European session, while batch of US data are due later today and eyed for fresh signals
Res: 1.2000, 1.2014, 1.2050, 1.2083
Sup: 1.1936, 1.1915, 1.1900, 1.1854
