The Euro returned above 1.20 handle in early Wednesday’s trading, consolidating after suffering heavy losses in past two days.
The single currency was down 0.70% on Tuesday, on the biggest one-day fall since 28 Mar, as dollar continues to rise and extended steep descend from 1.2413 high through key supports at 1.2412/00 (200SMA / psychological support).
Tuesday’s close below these supports was strong bearish signal for further weakness, but repeated close below is needed to validate scenario and open way towards next targets at 1.1936/15 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1553/1.2555 / 09 Jan trough).
Bearish setup of daily MA’s and negative momentum studies support the notion, however, daily RSI is reversing from oversold territory and signaling corrective upticks may precede fresh weakness.
Broken 200SMA caps for now, but stronger recovery could be anticipated on firm break higher.
Next solid barriers lay at 1.2083/1.2100 (Tuesday’s high / round figure), guarding pivotal barrier at 1.2146 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2413/1.1981, reinforced by falling 10SMA), where stronger recovery action should be capped.
Traders focus on today’s data for fresh signals, with EU GDP / Unemployment, coming first ahead of Fed’s rate decision and also keeping an eye on US-China trade talks.
Euro bloc’s Gross Domestic Product is forecasted at 2.5% vs 2.7% previous, holding near the strongest levels in past ten years, while unemployment is forecasted at 8.5% in March, the lowest since early 2009.
US Federal Reserve is ending its two-day policy meeting today, with wide expectations for unchanged interest rates, but focus on hints about central bank’s next steps.
Another important release today will be US ADP private sector employment report, which is usually seen as an indication for key release this week – US Non-Farm Payrolls report, due on Friday.
Res: 1.2055, 1.2083, 1.2100, 1.2146
Sup: 1.2000, 1.1981, 1.1936, 1.1915
