STOCKS
Dow (24573.04, +0.87%) has broken above the immediate resistance near 24500 and if that sustains, a rise towards 25000-25200 or higher could be seen in the coming sessions. Near term likely to remain bullish while above 24500.
Dax (12391.41, -0.41%) again dipped a bit from immediate resistance at 12500. Unless the index breaks on the upside, we could again see some consolidation while the index comes off to re-test 12200 or lower.
Nikkei (21837.39, +0.0085%) has been stagnant near 21800 for the last 3-sessions. The fall to 20500 has been recovered on the weekly candle charts and while the recovery keeps the index above 21800, a rise in the coming weeks looks possible. A break below 21500 could then be treated as a false break which recovered within 2-weeks. Price action near current levels is crucial to keep an eye on.
Shanghai (3109.01, -0.051%) has not been able to sustain a rise from 3100 and is likely to test support near 3080/3070 on the 3-day candles. If the support holds, some more consolidation in the 3200-3080 is possible else a sharp break below 3080 could turn bearish for the near to medium term.
Nifty (10528.35, +0.46%) and Sensex (34305.43, +0.33%) have moved up sharply. Nifty faces resistance at 10550 while Sensex has scope of testing 34500-34750 levels in the near term. Crucial levels to watch for the Indian equity indices.
COMMODITIES
Brent (71.66) is down from 74 which is likely to hold for sometime, pushing Brent towards 70 again in the next few sessions. Nymex WTI (66.52) has also come off from resistance just below 68 and while that holds, a fall towards 65-64 levels look possible.
Although Gold (1349.30) has some resistance near 1370, overall the price has some chances of breaking above 1370 in April itself, taking an attempt to test levels of 1380-1400. Medium term looks bullish.
Copper (3.0985) is likely to re-test 3.15 on the upside before coming off from there again. 3.15 is an important near term resistance for Copper is is likely to hold in the medium term.
FOREX
Dollar index (89.42) in line with our expectation, has dipped from levels near 89.7-89.8 towards 89.4 and could move down further towards support on daily candles near 89.25 this week. On 3 day candles, there might be some support at current levels itself; which if holds, would take the Dollar Index upwards from here. US Retail Sales data came out higher than expectation but didn’t lend any strength to the Dollar.
Euro (1.2380): As per our expectation, Euro is rising towards 1.2400-1.2420 (seen as immediate resistance on daily line chart). If it breaks this resistance, it could then target previous highs near 1.25-1.26 (or max, go up to 1.28), from where a medium term correction could be possible. A straight rise past 1.26-1.28 would imply medium term bullishness for the Euro.
Dollar Yen (107.04) after having seen a high near 107.8 on Friday, has come off from there. As per our expectation, it is trading at levels near 107 (just below support trendline on daily candles). If this break sustains, it could target levels near 106.5 soon (close to support on weekly candles).
As we mentioned yesterday as well, Euro Yen (132.51) could face resistance near 132.5-133.0, being provided by 21 moving averages on 3 day and weekly line charts. The range in this week could be 132.5-132.0 as the Dollar Yen could sustain its break below 107, while the Euro stays below 1.24.
Exactly as we predicted yesterday, Pound (1.4337) is again testing levels near 1.43-1.435 (which is seen as interim resistance on 3 day candles and is also the previous high seen in Jan end). This is a crucial level, whose break could imply bullishness towards 1.45-46 in the medium term (seen as resistance on weekly line chart).
Dollar Rupee (65.4950) – Could face interim resistance near 65.535 (high seen in Nov ’17). Above that, 65.60-65 (Oct ’17 high and possible channel resistance) could act as decent intra week resistance. Downside could be restricted to 65.35.
INTEREST RATES
Limited US airstrikes on Syria hasn’t adversely affected risk appetite amongst investors and on Monday, bond prices in fact fell (thereby raising yields), indicating a possible shift towards equity. US Retail Sales coming in higher than expected might have also contributed to the rise in yields. Earlier last week, outlook on economic growth had been uplifted due to improvement in data on unemployment claims and the positivity reflected in the Fed minutes.
US 10 Yr Yield (2.8322%), 30 Yr (3.029%), 5 Yr (2.685%), 2 Yr (2.3732%):
The 10 Year yield saw a high near 2.86%, thereby causing a false break of resistance in the downward channel on short term charts. However, the yield has again dipped back into the channel and could possibly dip further towards 2.8%.
The 30 yr also broke above resistance on short term chart by seeing a high of 3.07% but is again back into the channel. It should dip lower towards 3% now.
