Key Highlights
- Crude oil price moved higher this past week and settled above $65.00 against the US dollar.
- There was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance at $63.80 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
- The US Retail Sales in March 2018 increased 0.6% (MoM), more than the +0.4% forecast.
- China’s GDP in Q1 2018 grew 6.8%, compared with the forecast of 6.7%.
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
This past week, there was a decent upside move in crude oil price from $61.80 against the US Dollar. The price moved higher and broke many resistances, including the $65.00 barrier.
Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price is in a solid uptrend from the $62.00 swing low. It broke both 100 (red) and 200 (green) simple moving averages (4-hours) to move into a positive zone.
During the upside move, there was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance at $63.80 on the 4-hours chart. The price traded as high as $67.74 before a downside correction was initiated.
It tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the $61.78 low to $67.74 high. There are also many supports on the downside near the $65.40 zone and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the $61.78 low to $67.74 high.
Therefore, if the price dips further, buyers are likely to appear around the $65.40 area. On the upside, the price must clear the $67.50-70 resistance to move past $68.00 in the near term.
Recently in the US, the Retail Sales report for March 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for a 0.4% rise in sales in March 2018, compared with the previous month.
The actual was better as there was a rise of 0.6% in sales, which was a lot better than the last decline of 0.1%. The report stated:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $494.6 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2017.
Overall, there could be a short-term consolidation in crude oil price, but it remains supported for more gains.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- UK Claimant Count Change March 2018 – Forecast 5.0K, versus 9.2K previous.
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate Feb 2018 (3M) – Forecast 4.3%, versus 4.3% previous.
- US Housing Starts March 2018 (MoM) – Forecast 1.269M, versus 1.236M previous.
- US Building Permits March 2018 (MoM) – Forecast 1.328M, versus 1.321M previous.
- US Industrial Production March 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.9% previous.
