Key Highlights
- The Euro declined this past week and tested the 1.2300 support zone against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2325 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
- The Euro Zone Trade Balance in Feb 2018 posted a trade surplus of €21.0B, better than the forecast of €20.2B.
- Today, the US Retail Sales for March 2018 will be released, which is forecasted to increase 0.3% (MoM).
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The Euro struggled this past week against the US Dollar, especially after an unexpected dovishness from the ECB. The EUR/USD pair tumbled and tested the 1.2300 support area.
However, the pair managed to hold the 1.2300 support and slightly recovered. The best part was the fact that there was no close below the 100 (red) and 200 (green) simple moving averages (4-hours).
The pair is currently trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2396 high to 1.2299 low. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2325 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
As long as the pair is above the trend line support at 1.2325 and stays above the 100 (red) and 200 (green) simple moving averages (4-hours), it remains supported for a recovery in the near term.
On the upside, a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2396 high to 1.2299 low is needed for more gains. Above 1.2345, the pair may continue to move higher and it could even retest the 1.2400 handle.
On the downside, a break and close below the 1.2300 support zone could open the doors for further losses. The next major support sits around the 1.2250 level.
