STOCKS
Dow (23932.76, -2.34%) came off sharply on Friday after seeing a 2-day bounce from levels near 23500 previously. Overall the trade region is getting narrow for the next few sessions between 24300-23300 and the index would soon break on either side to move afresh for the medium term, giving more clarity to the medium term direction.
Dax (12241.27, -0.52%) is trading at immediate channel resistance as seen on the daily candles. While the resistance at 12300 holds, the index is likely to come off towards lower levels of 12000-11800 again in the coming sessions. A break above 12300, if seen would take the index to 12500 and maybe higher in the medium term. Watch price action at current levels.
Nikkei (21588.03, +0.10%) has resistance near 21800 on the 3-day candles and if that holds, it could push the index to 21000 or lower in the medium term. A sustained rise above 21800 if seen could indicate some bullishness but while the Dollar Yen looks bearish, a rise in Nikkei looks less likely.
Shanghai (3126.66, -0.14%) is also trading at crucial levels just now. Although the index has an immediate support near 3100 on the candle charts, the 3-day line chart shows that the price has broken below the immediate support and may look bearish for the coming sessions with a possible target of 3000.
Nifty (10331.60, +0.06%) has got some support near 10100 and may keep the index higher for now. A possible rise to 10400-10500 is expected in the next few sessions. Sensex (33626.97, +0.09%) will have to break above 34000 to indicate some medium term bullishness. While below 34000, there could be some chances that the price continues to trade sideways.
COMMODITIES
Brent (67.36) is likely to come down to 66 from where it may get some support to bounce back towards 69 again. While Nymex WTI (62.25) is testing support at current levels. If support at 62 holds on WTI, it could move up in the next few sessions to 64-65 again.
Gold (1336.70) continues to trade in the consolidation mode between 1360-1310 with a narrower range of 1350-1320 for the next 2-sessions. No clarity is direction is visible just now while the commodity price trades within the mentioned range.
Copper (3.0475) looks bearish towards 3.0-2.95 on the daily line chart. A fall back towards 3 or lower is expected in the near term.
FOREX
Dollar index (90.186) hasn’t been able to rise past Thursday’s high of 90.59. There is immediate resistance near 90.50-90.75 as seen on 3 day candles and daily line chart. While below this resistance, the Dollar Index could dip towards 89.5 (seen as support on weekly line chart).
Euro (1.2274) tested lower support on daily candles (near 1.2225) both on Thursday and Friday by dropping to lows near 1.2218-1.2215 and now seems to be bouncing from those levels. The 21 days moving average line is near 1.2319 and could provide some interim resistance in the day ahead. We have been saying that a break below 1.215 would imply medium term bearishness and a breach above 1.25-1.26 would imply medium term bullishness. While between these levels, Euro could continue its ranging of the past 2 months.
Dollar Yen (106.94) saw highs near 107.46 last week and is trading below 107 currently. There could be some support provided by earlier resistance trendline on daily candles and daily line chart near 106.8. If it stays above this level and then moves beyond its previous high of 107.9 (seen in Feb end), it could imply medium term bullishness for Dollar Yen.
Euro Yen (131.25) is trading around resistance in the downward channel on 3 day and weekly candles near 131.0-131.5. If it respects these resistances, it could come down towards support near 130. However, if the Euro moves up towards 1.232 this week and the Dollar Yen stays above 106.80, Euro Yen might well rise past this resistance.
Pound (1.4095) as per our expectation touched levels near 1.396 (very close to support on daily and 3 day candles) and now seems to be bouncing from there. Immediate upside target would be 1.42 (seen as resistance on daily and 3 day candles).
Dollar Rupee (64.97) has been ranged in the last week. We still hope to see dip below 64.90. The Indo-US Yield Spread might bounce and aid Rupee strength.
INTEREST RATES
US long term yields as per expectation are seeing a slight dip from resistances in respective downward channel. The US CPI data release this week (11th April) could be important for yields. We have been saying that US yields could continue moving in a downward channel through Apr-May.
US 10 Yr Yield (2.79%), 30 Yr (3.03%), 5 Yr (2.60%), 2 Yr (2.28%) :
The 10 Year almost tested resistance in the downward channel on short term chart by reaching levels near 2.83% but has subsequently dipped from there and could move lower towards earlier low near 2.74%.
The 30 yr yield as expected has also dipped after testing channel resistance near 3.07% and could dip towards 3% this week.
