STOCKS
Dow (24103.11, +1.07%) has risen a bit. Overall trade within 23500-24500 is likely to continue in the near to medium term. The index could face some rejection from 24500 levels which could push it down to 24000 or lower.
Dax (12096.73, +1.31%) is trading within the channel region of 12300-11700 just now. A rise towards 12200-12300 is possible in the next couple of sessions followed by a fall towards 12000 or lower.
Nikkei (21555.64, +0.47%) is trading above immediate resistance near 21400 and while that sustains, the index could move up towards 21800-22000 levels in the near term. Else a fall back towards 20800-20600 could be seen in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (3183.22, +0.45%) is holding well above support at 3100. A break above 3200 is needed to take it higher to 3250; else the index could be stuck in the 3200-3100 region for some more sessions, trading sideways.
Nifty (10113.70, -0.69%) may come down to 10020 while below interim resistance near 10200. Near term downward channel as shown on the daily candles may hold for now.
Sensex (32968.68, -0.62%) is also likely to come off towards 32500 while below 33250. Near term looks bearish.
COMMODITIES
Brent (69.74) and Nymex WTI (65.20) could re-attempt a rise in the near term towards 71.50 and 67 respectively. The bnext few sessions could be ranged with a possibility of rising in the medium term.
Gold (1333.40) could get some support near 1320 which could attempt to push the prices to higher levels of 1340 again. Note that 1320-1315 could give some immediate support just now. A break below 1315, if seen could again take it down towards 1300.
Copper (3.0455) got some support near 2.90 from where the price has come up to trade above 3.04 again. While the rise sustains, there could be scope of further rise towards 3.10-3.12 in the near term.
FOREX
A downward channel on daily candles for the Dollar index (89.96) could get confirmed if it dips from current levels. Some resistance could be provided by the 13 weeks moving average on the weekly line chart, but a breach of that would mean a test of higher resistance (on weekly line chart and 3 day candles) near 91 and a dip thereafter. A test of 91 is slightly more preferred this week.
Euro (1.2321) might drop lower to test support on 3 day candles and daily line chart near 1.225 this week. However, that would imply a break of immediate support on daily candles near 1.23, which could happen simultaneously with the Dollar Index breaching the 13 weeks moving average.
Dollar Yen (106.34) is moving in a slightly downward channel on daily candles and has dipped after testing resistance near 106.93. It could dip lower this week back towards levels near 106.0-105.5.
Euro Yen (131.02) after testing resistance near 131.5-132.0 on daily candles last week, might see a dip towards support on 3 day candles near 130 this week.
Pound (1.4045) unexpectedly broke support on the upward channel on daily candles last week and should now find support near 1.395-1.390 this week, from where it could then bounce.
Dollar Rupee (65.175) – Resistance at 65.25 has held. See 65.00 and 64.85 this week.
INTEREST RATES
US long term yields have continued falling as investors seem to be shifting away from volatile equity markets into safer debt. This is in line with our earlier expectation of a slow decline in yields, which might continue through Apr-May.
US 10 Yr Yield (2.7625%), 30 Yr (2.9927%), 5 Yr (2.589%), 2 Yr (2.28%) :
The 10 Year yield as per our expectation has touched 2.75% and might now find support near current levels on the medium term chart.
The 30 yr yield is moving in a downward channel on the short term chart and might see a bounce from support near current levels in this week.
