Key Highlights
- Gold price started an upside move after forming a support above $1,300 against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,320 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
- The US Retail Sales figure for Feb 2018 posted a decline of 0.1%, compared with the forecast of a 0.3% rise.
- The US Jobless Claims for the week ending March 10, 2018 will be released today, which is forecasted to decline from 231K to 226K.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
After a major decline, gold price formed a decent support above $1,300 and recovered against the US Dollar. The price traded higher and succeeded in moving above the $1,315 resistance area.
It traded towards $1,340 before correcting lower. Recently, an intermediate low was formed at $1,313.22. At the moment, the price is moving higher and is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,340.47 high to $1,313.22 low.
However, buyers need to break the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) to gain upside momentum.
On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,321 on the 4-hours chart. As long as the price is above the trend line and $1,320, it could move higher.
US Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales figure for Feb 2018 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for a rise of 0.3% in sales compared with the previous month.
The actual result was lower than the forecast since there was a decline in sales by 0.1% instead of a rise. Looking at the US Retail Sales ex Autos figure, there was a rise of 0.2%, less than the forecast of +0.4%.
The report added:
Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from January 2018, but 4.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 10.1 percent (±1.4 percent) from February 2017, while Gasoline Stations were up 7.9 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year.
Overall, the result was slightly negative, but the US Dollar was not impacted much. Having said that, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were seen trading in a positive zone.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- SNB Interest Rate Decision – Forecast -0.75% versus -0.75% previous.
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 226K, versus 231K previous.
- US Import Price Index for Feb 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +1.0% previous.
- US Export Price Index for Feb 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.8% previous.
