STOCKS
Dow (24874.76, +1.37%) moved up from the immediate support on the daily candles instead of moving down to test lower supports near 24000-23600. Upside could be limited to 25000-25200 levels in the medium term and an eventual test of 24000 is possible in the longer term. While the support on the daily candles hold, the index may rise towards 25000-25200.
Dax (12090.87, +1.49%) bounced slightly after the recent fall to levels below 12000. Currently trading just above 12000, the index could attempt a test of 12200-12300 on the upside from where another short dip is possible. The horizontal support on the weekly seems to be holding just now as mentioned yesterday but need to see if the current bounce is short lived or moves higher towards 12500 and above.
Nikkei (21487.16, +2.12%) is trading just along the support on the 3-day candle charts and while that holds, a bounce towards 22000-22500 looks possible.
Shanghai (3247.79, +0.28%) has immediate resistance as visible on the daily candle chartand while that holds, there could be a decent fall towards 3230-3200 in the next 1-2 sessions.
Nifty (10358.85, -0.95%) tested a low of 10323 yesterday, breaking our mentioned 10380 support. If the index does not bounce back immediately, it could indicate upcoming bearishness towards 10200-10000 levels in the near term. Else a bounce back from current levels could take it higher towards 10500-10800 levels.
Sensex (33746.78, -0.88%) show a clear break of the immediate support which is yet not visible on the Nifty. This could be indicateive of an upcoming bearishness. Current levels are crucial to keep an eye on.
COMMODITIES
Brent (65.66) and WTI (62.63) have moved up and could target 66.0-66.5 and 63.0-63.4 today. Thereafter a small dip is possible back towards 64.30 and 62-61 respectively.
Gold (1321.91) has paused near current levels and could trade sideways in the 1310-1330 region just now. Slight rejection from 1330 is possible in the next couple of sessions. Near term looks stable.
Copper (3.1315) is also in a pause mode just now and is likely to remain stable for sometime in the 3.15-3.07 region before trying to move towards 3.20 or higher in the longer run.
FOREX
The Dollar Index (89.966), seems to be getting some immediate support near 90 by the 13 days and 21 days moving average lines on daily line chart and also by the 5 weeks moving average line on the weekly line chart. However these supports might not hold for long as the Dollar Index might attempt to move further down towards support near 89.5 on daily candles. 89.0-89.5 is seen as crucial long term support level on the weekly line charts, which if broken, might lead to sustained bearishness for the Dollar.
The Euro (1.2350) has broken above the immediate resistance, which was being provided by the 21 days moving average line on the daily line chart near 1.232-1.233. There might be some resistance provided by earlier support line on 3 day candles near 1.235, but this resistance should be breached soon for an attempt of higher levels near 1.245-1.250 later this week.
Dollar-Yen (106.41) against our expectation has risen from levels near 105.4-105.5 seen yesterday and might now attempt a test of resistance near 106.5-106.75 on the daily candles before dipping again. Medium term looks bearish for Dollar Yen with the next target on the downside being levels close to 104.0-104.5, seen as support on daily and 3 day candles.
The Euro-Yen (131.43) tested support on daily candles near 129.5 (it saw a low of 129.36) earlier than expected and has now bounced. There is resistance near 131.5 on the daily candles and near 132 on the 3 day candles which should keep the Euro Yen’s upmove restricted.
Pound (1.3845) is bouncing from support near 1.3775 on the daily candles and might move back up towards 1.395 over the coming sessions, which is seen as immediate resistance on daily candles.
Dollar-Rupee (65.11): Bit of a two-way market possible today – watch if either Resistance at 65.3075 or Support at 65.00 breaks.
INTEREST RATES
The German 10 Yr – US 10 Yr yield differential (-2.24%) is hovering near crucial long term support level of -2.25%, which might hold. A hold of the support would imply either a drop in US 10 yr yield or a rise in the German 10 yr yield. The German 10 Yr yield (0.64%) recently dropped below support near 0.7 on the medium term chart and dipped from resistance near 0.75 on the long term chart. Moreover, the ECB is expected to not indicate much tightening in their next meeting on 8th March, which might thereby imply that a rise in German 10 Yr yield might be difficult. Hence, for support on the German-US spread to hold, US yields might need to drop, which also look unlikely immediately. For now, the 8th march ECB meeting and 21st March US Fed meeting become extremely vital to the course of yields and forex rates.
US 10 Year Yield (2.88), US 30 year Yield (3.1547), US 5 year yield (2.65), US 2 year yield (2.237) : US Yields continue their oscillation near respective long term resistances
The first half of March might just see muted movement in US yields. As the 21st March Fed meeting comes closer, there could be a rise in yields in anticipation of a rate hike.
(Long term resistance levels for the 4 yields have been as follows: 2.85-2.90, 3.20, 2.7 and 2.2 respectively – a decisive breach of these levels could happen in March 2nd half.)
