USDJPY has been trading considerably lower since roughly the beginning of November, hitting a 15-month low of 105.50 on February 16.
Price action is developing below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 107.70 of the downleg with the high of 114.70 and the low of 105.50. The aforementioned obstacle overlaps with the 20-day simple moving average and is following the downward movement of the price. The short-term technical indicators are neutral to bearish and point to more weakness in the market.
From the technical point of view, in the daily timeframe, the RSI indicator is moving between the 30 and 50 levels with weak momentum, while the stochastic oscillator is approaching the 20 level. Both are avoiding showing clear signals.
If price action remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci mark, there is scope to test 105.50 strong support level. Clearing this key level could see additional gains towards the 101.00 psychological barrier. This is considered to be a significant area which has been rejected a few times in the past, taken from the low in November 2016.
In case of a jump above the 23.6% Fibonacci, then the focus could shift to the upside towards the 108.20 resistance level. If this level is breached, it could increase the upside pressure and bring about a small reversal of the trend. From here, USDJPY could be on the path towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level near the 109.00 handle.
