The Euro ticked higher in early Monday’s trading, testing levels above 1.23 handle, but without clear near-term direction, as the pair holds within 1.2260/1.2360 congestion and extends range-trading into fourth consecutive day.
Some recovery was seen in Asia on Monday as dollar slipped, but the action remains within the limits on cautious trading ahead of key events, speech of ECB President Mario Draghi today and the first congressional testimony on new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due on Tuesday.
Mario Draghi is widely expected to maintain neutral tone in order not to push the Euro too high, as the central bank is moving towards stabilizing monetary policy on cautious steps, suggesting that Draghi’s speech today wouldn’t make stronger impact on markets.
On the other side, markets are awaiting to hear an ideas about new Fed chief’s view about the monetary policy, whether Powell will stay in line with his predecessor or would take more radical steps.
Markets expect Powell not to make too much noise at his first testimony and likely stay in neutral mode, looking for more evidence from economic data to signal further steps regarding monetary policy.
From the technical point of view, bearishly aligned studies maintain negative near-term outlook.
The action remains capped by 30SMA (1.2344) for the fourth day and keeps negative bias, with 14-d momentum in negative zone supporting the notion.
The downside is expected to remain vulnerable while 30SMA caps, with range floor at 1.2260 marking initial support and guarding key points at 1.2205 (09 Feb low) and 1.2173 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1553/1.2555 ascend), loss of which would generate stronger bearish signal.
At the upside, 30SMA barrier guards upper pivots at 1.2370 zone (converged 10/20 SMA’s / Fibo 38.2% of 1.2555/1.2260 downleg), close above which will be strong bullish signal for stronger recovery towards the mid-zone of larger 1.2205/1.2555 range.
Res: 1.2344, 1.2370, 1.2407, 1.2442
Sup: 1.2279, 1.2260, 1.2235, 1.2205
