STOCKS
Globally stock indices are down and have entered into a sharp corrective more after the long 1-2 month rally. Corrective dip is likely to continue this week. All indices seem to be above crucial important supports which if breaks could push the indices further down in the medium term.
Dow (24345.75, -4.60%) has come off sharply breaking below our mentioned 24500 level yesterday. Immediate support is visible near 23500. That if holds, could keep the index range-bound for a few sessions; else a further fall towards 23350 or lower is possible. Need to see if 23500 holds just now.
Dax (12687.49, -0.76%) has broken below 12700 too and while the indices are down globally, Dax could head towards 12600 in the near term. A break below 12600, if seen could turn very bearish (towards 12200-12000) for the medium term.
Nikkei (21487.87, -5.26%) is down sharply as well and is ready to test support near 21000. Note that this is an immediate crucial support below current levels and in case the bears take the index below 21000, it could trigger a medium term bearishness towards much lower levels in the coming weeks.
Shanghai (3417.81, -2.00%) seems to be stuck in the 3500-3390 region as mentioned yesterday. But while the other indices are down globally, Shanghai too could possibly try o come down to test levels below 3390. Need to see if 3390 holds or breaks over the next couple of sessions.
Nifty (10666.55, -0.87%) and Sensex (34757.16, -0.88%) are down sharply much in line with our expectations and while the correction continues, the indices could be headed towards 10400-10380 and 34250-34000 respectively. Note that the SGX Nifty (10323, -3.48%) is down sharply and could well pull down the Indian stock indices on opening today morning.
COMMODITIES
Brent (66.97) and WTI (63.46) are both down as expected. The Crude prices could head lower in the coming sessions. Brent has support at 65 which if holds could take it higher again in the longer run, else the price could continue to dip towards 63-62 levels. WTI on the other hand could test 62 in the near term. View is bearish for the coming sessions.
Gold (1344.18) is stuck in the 1350-1320 region and is likely to remain so for another couple of sessions with a possible chance of testing 1360-1370 on the upside.
Copper (3.1765) is likely to bounce back from 3.17 to move again towards 3.25. Unless a break on either side of 3.17-3.25 region is seen, it would be difficult to project the further course of direction.
FOREX
Dollar Index (89.653) as per expectations, is seeing some strengthening towards 90. There might be some resistance provided by earlier support near 90 on 3 day candles.
Euro (1.2368) has dipped in line with our expectation of a near-term correction down to 1.2350. It could test 1.23 (earlier resistance on the weekly candles which might now provide support) in a week’s time.
Importantly, Dollar-Yen (108.66) has come down a bit, as the 21-day Moving Average Resistance on the daily line charts near 110.50 has held well. Could we be headed down towards 108 and 107? This is a BIG question. It could impact other markets also.
Euro Yen (134.46) has had a significant fall as the Euro weakened against the Dollar, while the Yen saw strengthening. There is important support on daily , 3 day and weekly candles near 134 which should hold in the near term.
Pound (1.3959) is very close to the 21 days moving average line on daily line charts after having dipped from resistance near 1.425-1.43 on the 3 day candles and the daily line chart last week. While it stays above this 21 days moving average line, it could again rise up to test 1.43.
Dollar Rupee (64.3950) has opened much higher than yesterday’s close near 64.06 on back of renewed Dollar strength and weakness in Asian equity indices. It could test 64.5-64.6 today.
INTEREST RATES
Elevated global bond yields since the past few days have finally drawn investors away from equity towards debt. There is a huge equity sell off underway leading to a rise in bond prices and consequently a dip in yields
US 10 Year Yield (2.6776), US 30 year Yield (3.0027), US 5 year yield (2.4), US 2 year yield (1.9898) have all fallen quite dramatically from respective long term resistance levels. The 10 year might find some support near 2.62 and consolidate above that in the days to come. The 5 Year yield has immediate support near 2.4 on the medium term chart and might now respect this support. The 30 year has resistance near 3.10 on the medium term chart, and it might now look to stay below that level in the near term.
Japan 10 year yield (0.072) has fallen towards support near 0.07 on the short term charts and might consolidate around these levels now.
German 10 year yield (0.736) has also dipped and has strong support near 0.7 on the medium term chart which should hold for now.
 Has Come Off Sharply Breaking Below Our Mentioned 24500 Level Yesterday Dow (24345.75, -4.60%) has come off sharply breaking below our mentioned 24500 level yesterday. Immediate support is visible near 23500. That if holds, could keep the index range-bound for a few sessions; else a further fall towards 23350 or lower is possible. Need to see if 23500 holds just now. ){kind=link}