STOCKS
Dow (26210.81, -0.01%) is almost stable. We maintain our view of a rise towards 26400-26500 in the coming sessions .
Dax (13559.60, +0.71%) opened with a gap up and is trading higher just now. While above 13500, there is scope of further rise towards 13750 or even higher in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (23989.08, -0.56%) has paused near current levels and could be stuck in the 24150-23500 region for a couple of sessions before again trying to move up. Note that levels near 24200 is a decent near term resistance and if that holds, there could be a short dip or a sideways consolidation in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (3534.29, -0.34%) has come off from levels near 3557 maybe due to a fall in Copper prices as inventories surged and could come off towards 3525-3500 levels in the next few sessions. Note that 3500 is an immediate support and could hold for now. On a break above 3557 in the medium term, there is scope of testing 3600 in the longer run.
Nifty (11083.70, +1.07%) and Sensex (36139.98, +0.96%) has been rising since the last few days and it would be difficult to say what the immediate target would be. A test of 11200-11400 looks a possible scenario for the near term on the Nifty while for the Sensex 36500-36700 seems possible. A pause to the rising rally could be well seen by the end of the month.
COMMODITIES
Brent (69.77) and WTI (64.38), both have moved up and have again come close to the resistance levels of 70 and 65 respectively. Lack of a strong rejection from these resistances arise a question of whether the bulls still have some strength to show in the near term. While below 70 and 65, some sideways movement could be expected in the near term.
Gold (1340.75) has moved up as expected but could face some rejection from important resistance near 1345-1350 levels. Only in case Dollar Index moves down sharply and pushes up Gold to levels beyond 1350, we would shift our focus to higher levels.
Copper (3.1340) fell sharply to levels below 3.20 contrary to our expectation of a rise towards 3.25. This is mainly due to a rise in the inventories. News states that Copper sank below $7000 a tonne to a one month low yesterday. We may expect some recovery towards 3.15 or higher by next week.
FOREX
Dollar Index (89.973) against our expectations has dropped below the crucial level of 90 as the Euro and Yen both have made gains on back of strong economic data in Europe and Japan respectively. Weakness in the dollar has come about inspite of the fact that the US government shutdown has ended. Moreover higher US bond yields relative to the German bunds or Japanese bonds are also not bringing about any significant strengthening for the Dollar. We should still wait before a decisive break below 90 is confirmed, since the index is still near support on daily candles and weekly candles. There could still be a bounce in the near term towards 91-91.5.
Euro (1.2309) has risen on back of stronger consumer confidence data and can be expected to stay below 1.2320-1.2330 (which is seen as immediate resistance on the daily candles) for few more sessions. We still maintain the likelihood of a drop towards support near 1.21 on daily candles before it attempts higher levels.
Dollar-Yen (110.05) has reacted to strong Japanese economy data inspite of a dovish stance by the Bank of Japan yesterday. It even went below 110 to 109.93 but is trading above 110 currently. We could now see Dollar-Yen testing support near 109.5 on the daily and 3 day candles after which there should be a bounce.
Euro-Yen (135.41) has dropped further as the yen strengthened more than the Euro. We might have to wait for a couple of sessions to get more directional clarity on whether it will first drop to test support near 134 on daily candles or, resume its rise towards resistance at 137.
Pound (1.4025) also rose against the Dollar and will attempt to test resistance near 1.41 on the weekly candles this week.
Dollar Rupee (63.78) is likely to spend the next few sessions in the 64.00-63.70 region (possible extension to 64.10 and 63.60).
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Yr (2.6168%), 30 Yr (2.8953%), 5 Yr (2.4171%) & 2 Yr (2.0561%) have all come down further since yesterday, after the highs of day before, reflecting that there has been some bullishness on US bonds after yields shot up. The US 30 Yr as mentioned yesterday, came down from resistance near 2.92% and is now at earlier resistance of 2.89-2.9% which could act as support for the time being. Oscillation in a very narrow range of 2.9-2.92% could be expected.
The US 10 Yr is trading just below earlier resistance at 2.62%, and it will be interesting to see if this level acts as support now, or whether the yield stays below this level, making it act as resistance once again.
Japanese 10 Yr (0.073%) has come down as the Bank of Japan appeared to be dovish and kept rates constant. There is some support near 0.062% on the short term charts which could be tested if there is further bullishness on Japanese bonds
 has dropped further as the yen strengthened more than the Euro. We might have to wait for a couple of sessions to get more directional clarity on whether it will first drop to test support near 134 on daily candles or, resume its rise towards resistance at 137. ){kind=link}