- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 53% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales
New trading week the currency exchange rate began in resistance zone located around the 1.1870 mark. As regards the further movement of the pair, there is a need to take into account that the rate four days in a row failed to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1887.
The Greenback depreciated against the European single currency on the disappointing US GDP data. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose 11 base points to the 1.1866 mark to reveal temporary consolidation, but fell, as Congress managed to avoid the US Government shutdown on Friday.
The US economy expanded at its strongest pace in two years in the Q3, fuelled by solid business spending.The Commerce Department stated that the country’s gross domestic product rose at a 3.2% yearly rate in the Q3, missing expectations for a 3.3% growth. Moreover, the US Congress approved tax cuts are set to encourage economic growth, though the risk of overheating is likely to occur with fiscal stimulus coming simultaneously with reaching the level of full employment.
Despite the holiday mood it might be worth to take a look at release of information on sentiment of American consumers, which is expected to decrease to 128.2 from 129.5.
EUR/USD fails to bypass 1.1880
The first trading day after Christmas the currency exchange rate started in a resistance zone located between the 1.1865 and 1.1876 levels. Because of an empty economic calendar and decreased liquidity the pair is likely to continue moving horizontally. In short the term, the rising 55- and 100-hour SMAs most probably will stimulate the rise of the Euro against the Dollar. However, in larger perspective the exchange rate is expected to keep moving downwards due to inability to bypass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level located at the 1.1887 mark. In support of this assumption, 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to buy, while the aggregate market sentiment is 67% bearish.
Hourly Chart
At the moment, the currency rate is still fluctuating in a triangle formed by the upper line of a dominant descending channel and the bottom line of a junior ascending channel. From this perspective, the pair is expected to soar to the 1.1900 mark. However, the fact that the rate failed to bypass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level four times in a row suggests that it might resume the downward movement.
Daily Chart
