EURUSD is neutral in a broad range between 1.1600 and 1.1900 since late September. The pair has been pivoting the 50-day moving average which is horizontal and indicative of a lack of clear direction in the market. The RSI is neutral around 50.
Near-term support appears to be holding at 1.1730 and limiting downside moves. Below this level dips are expected to find strong support at 1.1600.
The EURUS’s outlook remains positive in the longer term as the uptrend from April to September (1.0820 to 1.2091) has not shown any signs of reversal yet, while the 50 and 200-day moving averages are bullishly aligned.
The consolidation phase that followed the peak at 1.2091 is expected to continue in the near term until the market retraces more than half of the April-September uptrend. EURUSD has only retraced 23.6% of this upleg and is trading just below this Fibonacci at 1.1792.
EURUSD has scope to extend higher towards 1.1900 and to re-test the November 27 high of 1.1960. But near-term momentum is weak. Consequently, the neutral bias is expected to remain intact in the short-term unless prices break above the 50-day MA.
