STOCKS
Dow (24386.03, +0.23%) may be slowly and steadily heading towards 24600 in the coming sessions. Movements could be small and narrow but looks positive for the near term.
Dax (13123.65, -0.23%) came off slightly and remained below 13200. Looking at the 3-day and the weekly candle charts, there is support below current levels which could eventually push the index to higher levels above 13200 in the medium term. View remains bullish for the long term while above 13000.
Nikkei (22944.21, +0.02%) has tried to test 23000 and may possibly attempt to break above 23000. Not that 23000-23200 could be a decent near term support which could push the index back towards 22800 and lower. A break above 23200, if seen and sustained would initiate further bullishness with an upside target of 23400-23800 in the longer run. Important to watch 23000-23200 levels.
Shanghai (3307.68, -0.44%) tested 3325 as expected but came off from there instead of moving up further towards 3340. A re-test of 3300 or lower is possible before the index again bounces back towards 3340-3350 levels.
Nifty (10322.25, +0.55%) and Sensex (33455.79, +0.62%) were up by more than 0.50% yesterday. Nifty may test 10350 and come off from there to see a short dip while Sensex could test resistance at 33750. While the resistances hold, Dollar Rupee could bounce back from levels near 64.30.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1244.54) looks weak and the bears seems to be dominant just now. A break below 1240, if seen would be crucial and take it down towards 1220 in the coming sessions. But while above 1240, we keep some chances of a bounce back towards 1260-1280 soon. Crucial to watch 1240 on Gold and 94 on Dollar Index.
Silver (15.76) is almost stable after the recent fall from levels near 17.25. Maximum downside of 15.50 is possible before the price starts to move up towards 16.25 and higher.
Brent (65.22) and WTI (58.26) have moved up sharply. Brent could target 68 in the coming sessions while WTI has resistance at 59.0-60.0 which needs to break to ensure further bullishness on the price. For now Brent has a possibility of moving up faster compared to that of WTI.
Copper (3.0040) has moved up in line with our expectation and could rise further towards 3.05-3.07 in the coming sessions.
FOREX
Dollar-Index (93.945) is now testing resistance around 94.00 on the 3 day candles and daily line charts. This is an important resistance, whose hold could indicate to a possible downtrend towards 93 by end of this month. However a breach of resistance would possibly lead to a test of 94.40-94.50 on the daily candles, from where a definitive dip could follow.
Euro (1.1768) is trading just above immediate support (around 1.173-1.175) on the 3 day candles, which is likely to hold and take it towards 1.19 by the end of the month. A break of immediate support could however lead to testing of lower support around 1.17 (as seen on daily candles, 3 day candles & daily line charts), which could then prove to be a strong support.
Dollar-Yen (113.48), like the Dollar Index, seems to be seeing a dip from resistance level (around 113.5-113.6) on the daily line chart. A further test of higher resistance at 114 could still be possible with an eventual dip back towards 112-112.5 by next month.
Pound (1.3340) has broken support at 1.335 and is now expected to move towards 1.32-1.3225, which is seen as a strong support level on daily, 3 day and weekly charts.
Dollar Rupee (64.3650) may test 64.30/25 today and then bounce back towards 64.50 by the end of the week. Possibility of corresponding movement in the Nifty towards resistance (10350) and a dip from there coincides with predicted Dollar Rupee movement.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are almost stable. The 10YR (2.38%) is down by 1bps while the 5Yr (2.15%) and the 30Yr (2.77%) are stable. The 30YR is testing immediate resistance at 2.80% while the 10Yr could move up to 2.45% in the near term. The 5Yr also has some room on the upside and could test 2.20% in the near term.
The UK-US 10YR (-1.18%) has fallen sharply breaking below important support near -1.12%. While the spread moves lower, Pound could also be bearish towards 1.32-1.31 in the coming sessions.
The German-US 10YR (-2.09%) has moved lower as expected but may not stop at -2.10%. The spread looks weak in the near term.
The Indian 10YR GOI (7.1717%) has risen sharply yesterday and could move up to test 7.20-7.25% in the near term.
